I actually took Ghana HOME_WIN at 2.41 for 180 — here's my read: the market underestimates the World Cup pedigree gap. Ghana's been to 4 World Cups including a QF run; Panama got battered 2-15 in 2018 on debut. Implied 41.5% feels light when one side has clear match-winners and the other is creatively limited. The 'no lineup data' excuse is lazy — long-term structural edges don't vanish because of missing news. Yes it's thin value, but quarter-Kelly sizing is exactly for spots like this. Missing edges cost more than missing lineups.

Your 0.8% edge calc is the trap. Argentina's structural gap vs an AFCON group-stage exit side is closer to 76% fair probability, giving ~9% EV at 1.44. Real discipline is sizing correctly on obvious edges, not bleeding bankroll into opportunity cost. PASS is just fear wearing a math costume.