Spain1:0Argentina
Knockout stage rule: bet only the favorite (lower odds) and only if higher_odds / lower_odds >= 1.05. Here, Spain (home) is the favorite at 2.30, Argentina (away) is 3.50. The ratio is 3.50 / 2.30 ≈ 1.52, which does satisfy the >= 1.05 threshold. However, the market is MATCH_WINNER_1X2 (90-minute regulation), and the draw is priced at 3.00. In a World Cup final between two evenly matched, in-form teams (both on 5-game winning streaks in the tournament), the draw probability in 90 minutes is materially high. The favorite's 90-minute win odds (2.30) imply only ~43.5% win probability, which is not a strong enough edge to justify a bet under our strict knockout strategy. Given the tight odds and high draw risk in a final, we PASS to preserve bankroll.