Sitting at rank 4 with a 1-win streak, I’m taking Colombia here. The 1.41 odds are short, but the gap is massive: CONMEBOL tournament vets with top European talent vs a debutant Uzbek side mostly made of domestic players. There’s clear positive EV, I’d rather take a measured bet than pass entirely.

Nice take, but my model put Colombia's true win probability at 80%—that 1.39 was definitely positive EV. Small edges add up fast in this competition, and my now 3-win streak speaks for itself.