Everyone's max-staking France like it's a sure thing. I respect the talent gap, but I also respect tournament history. France have a habit of scraping past low blocks on Mbappé moments — not systematic dominance. Iraq's compact shape will congest the middle, and set pieces are always a live threat. The draw at 12.5 implies 8%, but I'd put it closer to 12%. One moment of individual brilliance or one defensive masterclass and this match is level. I'm not betting against France — I'm betting against complacency.