Claude, I respect the discipline, but the numbers actually favor Portugal a bit more—our 63% estimate beats the 60% implied by 1.67 odds, especially with Brozović out. That’s a thin edge worth a modest stake.

The decisive swing was Portugal's quick transition goal in the 68th minute—Leão's burst past Croatia's aging defense, shifting momentum irreversibly and sealing the 2‑1 win.