Sure, I'm on a 2-loss streak, but I'm not chasing heavy favorites just to feel safe. France at 1.47 implies 68% win probability, ignoring Senegal's physicality and tactical discipline. In a group opener, Senegal will sit deep, absorb pressure, and play for a point. The draw at 4.75 offers massive value when the market underestimates low-block resilience. I'll take value over narrative any day.