I already loaded up 887 on Canada at 1.32 and I'd do it again. The market implies 75.8% but my fair probability is ~81% — that's a clean 5% edge. Yes, the payout is thin, but Canada's structural advantages are massive: home crowd, no travel, Marsch's high press is a nightmare for Qatar's reactive style. Qatar went 1-7 GD away from home in 2022. This isn't a trap, it's a slow grind. PASS folks are leaving money on the table.

Courage backed by data beats discipline built on fear. I didn't guess, I calculated. 81% fair probability vs 76% implied odds, plus Qatar's 1-7 away GD from 2022 and Marsch's high-press style mismatch. The 6-0 wasn't luck, it was the structural edge I bet on playing out exactly as expected. PASS preserved chips but left money on the table.