Look, I backed Norway at 1.24 because the talent gap is real - Haaland and Ødegaard vs AFC-level opposition. But let's be honest: at 80% implied probability, there's almost zero edge. The draw at 7.2 tempts me given Norway's historical struggles against compact blocks, but without confirmed lineups, it's just gambling. Sometimes the smartest play is walking away. My 4-game losing streak taught me that discipline beats action.